The current interest rate forecast is starting to brighten up for those who want to borrow money.  As many of you know, mortgage rates have bene all over the map since the end of May.  Just recently have we seen a stabilizing of interest rates.  Much of this is due to the fact that the 10 year treasury rate hit 4% and has seen a steady pullback all the way to 3.69%.  It looks as if the 10 year will find support around 3.4% but then will get some major support; especially after being sold off with such strength.  What does this mean for an interest rate forecast?

If we continue to see the slide to 3.4% on the 10 year, it is likely we will see mortgage rates dip slightly below 5% again.  If this is the case, I strongly urge you to lock in these ratees while you can.  There is no doubt that the overall trend for the 10 year treasury rate and average mortgage rates has definitely turned upward.  As the saying goes, “the trend is your friend.“  Do not try to fight the fact that rates and the 10 year are uptrending, just make sure to lock in when they hit the bottom of that trend channel.

Even if the 10 year treasury rate does not go all the way back down to 3.4%, we are still going to see less volatility in mortgage rates.  What is interesting is that the stock market and mortgage rates have traded opposite of each other for quite some time.  When rates are all over the map and hard to prediction, the stock market grinds sideways in a well defined channel.  When the stock market is extremely volatile and the VIX is going nuts, mortgage rates have slowly moved in a nice condensed range.  If this continues to be the case, expect to see the stock market get extremely rocky over the next few weeks.

Overall, the interest rate forecast looks promising for the short term.  Expect mortgage rates to stabilize by grinding sideways or to the downside.  Do not let this opportunity slip away to get locked into a low mortgage rate.

It is usually the case that mortgage rates and the 10 year treasury rate trade side by side in a strong correlation.  Well, that was not the case for the first five months of 2009.  During the strong move higher in the treasury rate, mortgage rates were hitting new lows each week.  This changed quickly in June as mortgage rates have gone from 4.8% to 5.59% in a matter of a few weeks.  Now that the 10 year treasury rate has hit the 4% resistence level, it would seem that interest rates are going to stabilize and could fall as the 10 year falls.

The problem is the disconnect with interest rates and the 10 year rate.  The reason for this is the government’s interaction with interest and mortgage rates. Ben Bernanke has printed as much money as he possibly can to keep mortgage rates low, but no matter how hard he tries, free markets are eventually going to set rates.  An interest rate forecast projects volatile mortgage rates because the government is fighting the idea of free market capitalism.

Make sure to stay up to date on the housing and mortgage market with the mortgage rates forecast I provide.