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Low Mortgage Rates – Will They Last Through the Summer?

Posted on | July 3, 2009 | 6 Comments

Please use Subprime Blogger to get your interest rate forecast.  I also offer several articles on the best fixed rate mortgage for you.

Low mortgage rates are something all Americans want.  Unfortunately, it has been the case that only the best borrowers have had the opportunity to access these extremely low mortgage rates.  Prior to June of 2009, mortgage rates were around or under 5% for much of this year.  Locking in at a mortgage rate of under 5% would have been unheard of before the current economic crisis.  One thing that the global meltdown has done is it has allowed home owners to refinance at mortgage rates that were never thought possible.

Over the last month, average mortgage rates have trended a little bit higher, but they are still near history lows.  The unfortunate issue at hand is the fact that the upward trend channel for both daily mortgage rates and the 10 year treasury rate is being tested to the downside right now.  If the lower trend line is not broken in the next few weeks, look for daily mortgage rates to head higher as the 10 year treasury rate is likely to push towards 4%.

If this is the case, now might be the best time to lock in at those low mortgage rates.  If you wait until the end of the summer, you might be looking at average mortgage rates around 6%.  There is a chance the the lower trend line of the mortgage rates trend channel will be broken, but the 10 year treasury rate is extremely sold off right now and it is hard to imagine another intense amount of selling to break through the 50 day moving average and the lower trend line.

If the lower trend line is broken, we are almost sure to see historically low mortgage rates that compare to March of 2009.  The breakdown of the 10 year would mean that average mortgage rates would like work their way back down to 4.75% or lower.  This would be great news for those in the market to buy a home or current home owners.  The bad news is that I see this to be very unlikely to happen.  At one point we are going to see buyers come back into the 10 year which will push interest rates higher.  If I were to make an interest rate forecast, I would say that rates are likely to move higher before the end of July and daily mortgage rates will likely move up throughout the end of the summer.

Obviously there will be ups and downs along with way, but the strong push higher by the 10 year treasury rate since the beginning of 2009 points out that we are likely to see higher mortgage rates rather than low mortgage rates.

Category: Low Mortgage Rates

Comments

6 Responses to “Low Mortgage Rates – Will They Last Through the Summer?”

  1. MC
    July 4th, 2009 @ 5:56 am

    Er, no, low mortgage rates are not “something all Americans want”. It’s something that Americans who have already bought a house want. For those on the sidelines, high rates are likely more advantageous.

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